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| © Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA - APRIL 21: People watch a television broadcast reporting on North Korean Kim Jong-un at the Seoul Railway Station on April 21, 2020 in Seoul, South Korea. South Korea has seen no unusual signs with regard to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's health, a government source said Tuesday, after US media reported that Kim is "in grave danger after a surgery." (Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images) |
By Paul D. Shinkman, U.S. News & World Report
North Korea this week provided halting signs that leader Kim Jong Un remains in power and control as sensational reports circulated unabated across the world claiming he is grievously ill or perhaps even dead.
Though their significance is disputed, a series of dispatches were reportedly issued in Kim's name to Syria, Cuba and South Africa as well as a letter of praise for local workers. But, as is historically the case when issues arise about its leader's fitness, signals from the Hermit Kingdom often raise more questions than they answer.
Some analysts are confident Kim is currently ensconced at his summer retreat in Wonsan, about 130 miles east of the capital of Pyongyang. Satellite images posted online in recent days show his personal train at the compound and more recent reports Tuesday indicate that yachts Kim has used have been in motion in the area, perhaps indicating his presence there.
But his condition is unknown.
Kim has not been seen for more than two weeks since publicly appearing at the Politburo on April 11. His absence gained widespread attention when he missed celebrations on April 15 marking the 108th anniversary of the birth of his grandfather and the country's founder, Kim Il Sung.
It's not the first time he has gone missing. In 2014, Kim disappeared from public view for three weeks for what was later revealed to be medical procedures, likely to address symptoms of gout. Despite estimates that he's only about 36 years old, Kim has long wrestled with health problems related to obesity and complications from drinking and smoking habits.
"The difference this time around is, one, the circumstantial evidence that seems to suggest that his health is in a worse situation," says Frank Aum, North Korea senior expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace. "And, two, the lack of clarity about Kim Jong Un's successor."
President Donald Trump, who last week said the emerging reports about Kim's failing health were "incorrect," has thus far this week declined to offer any insight into what Kim's condition might be.
"I do have a very good idea, but I can't talk about it now," Trump said during a White House press briefing Monday. "I hope he's fine. I do know how he's doing, relatively speaking. We will see. You'll probably be hearing in the not-too-distant future."
Pressed again Tuesday, Trump said, "I just don't want to comment on it. I just wish him well."
It remains possible that the North Korean leader has cloistered himself amid legitimate concerns about the spread of the coronavirus, a theory that one South Korean minister suggested was plausible on Tuesday. Officials acknowledge the disease could threaten North Korea's underdeveloped public health system, although Pyongyang has not publicly reported a single case of the disease.
Others fear for the worst: that Kim is gravely ill or has died.
Speculation about his health mounted following reports the Chinese government took the unusual step of dispatching a medical team to North Korea to advise on the young leader's condition. Additional published – but unverified – reports, some from foreign news outlets, have contained colorful accounts of Kim clutching his chest before collapsing and of a cardiovascular procedure complicated by a surgeon's shaking hands. Most recently, one post suggested that Kim was injured by shrapnel from an exploding cruise missile while monitoring a weapons test.
Those with major stakes in North Korea's future, namely China, South Korea and the U.S., have been opaque or publicly optimistic about the situation there, likely to avoid forcing North Korea from having to respond. Pentagon officials have declined to offer any information that would indicate a change in power in Pyongyang, with some telling news outlets privately that they are skeptical of the reports. And South Korea has said as recently as this week it assesses that Kim remains "alive and well."
Those in government who worked through the last time Kim went missing say little changed among U.S. diplomats and national security professionals during that period of uncertainty.
"There was no scrambling to write a new plan for how to deal with North Korea that I recall," says Thomas Countryman, who served as undersecretary of state for arms control and international security from 2011 until 2017. "Looking at it from the outside, this seems similar – a little bit of mystery that may have benign implications. All of us should greet this with caution."
At that time, public speculation centered on Kim's likely illnesses – not that he had died in secret – due to his apparent increase in weight along with footage of his walking with a peculiar gait at a ceremony honoring his grandfather. In another public appearance around then, he was sweating visibly. A translation by South Korea's Chosun Ilbo of a state-run footage from Pyongyang revealed an unusual admission in a reference to "Our marshal, who lights the path of leadership for the people like a flame, although he was not feeling well."
When Kim's father, Kim Jong Il, died of a heart attack in 2011, officials did not announce his death for two days. But the exact circumstances long remained in question. Signs of his failing health were at times only learned when they were intercepted by intelligence agencies in communications between North Korean officials and foreign interests from which they were seeking medical advice.
Seoul and Washington now have the critical responsibility not to begin public speculation about what may be going on inside North Korea, says Countryman, chairman of the Arms Control Association board of directors. And if news breaks that Kim is dead, they must avoid any sudden, radical moves.
"It would be a time in which new North Korean leadership was consolidating and deciding where to go," he says. "For the U.S. and South Korea to either take action or make statements that force a response from Pyongyang is unnecessary."
Many analysts point to Kim's younger sister, Kim Yo Jong, as the clear favorite to assume power in the case of his death. Thought to be about 32 years old, she is highly educated and has strong connections to the principal sources of power among the North Korean elite. Analysts believe she has a keen sense of how to shape her image and that of her family, and she has experience in international finance. She has frequently been photographed alongside her brother for propaganda purposes, including images of the pair riding horses together. And she has met multiple times with foreign leaders.
"If Kim Jong Un were to drop dead right now – or already has – Kim Yo Jong would be the only person to take over the country," says Harry Kazianis, senior director for Korean Studies at the Center for the National Interest. "There is, to be frank, no one else who could do the job."
The younger Kim's charm offensive at the 2018 Olympic Games in Pyeongchang, South Korea, secured her position as what local news outlets described as "North Korea's Ivanka," referencing Trump's daughter and influential White House adviser. She was perceived as outflanking the American vice president, who maintained distance from the two Korean delegations, allowing them to appear more unified than ever.
If Kim did indeed become incapacitated in recent weeks, or if he had died, his sister or any other heir would likely try to hide that fact for as long as possible while attenpting to consolidate power among the North Korean elites and military leaders, as well as securing control of the country's nuclear, chemical and biological stockpiles.
"If she can't do that, and there was a power struggle, the world should indeed worry," Kazianis says. "Nothing could be worse than a North Korean civil war fought with weapons of mass destruction. Nothing."
The main obstacle facing Kim Yo Jong and her claim to her family's bloodline is North Korea's historical tradition of looking to male heirs to lead the country.
Kim Jong Un's succession was clear when his father died. He had emerged from relative obscurity a year before, assumed the rank of four-star general and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party, and benefited from a state media campaign designed to deliver to him a cult following.
Aum says the new likely successor would also have to overcome all the prerogatives of the North Korean party and military elites, who are nearly all male and grounded in a patriarchal system.
"Her youth and more reserved nature do not help her in this battle," Aum says.
Other potential contenders for leadership include Kim Pyong Il, the current leader's half-brother and former ambassador to a series of European countries; Choe Ryong Hae, who is considered the No. 2 official in the country by some; and Premier Kim Jae Ryong, head of the Cabinet of North Korea.
But perhaps the only known outcome from a sudden power shift in North Korea is that it would yield a great deal of uncertainty.
"The current situation represents the least amount of clarity about who would succeed," says Aum, "and, therefore, the greatest amount of risk."
See more at U.S. News & World Report
North Korea this week provided halting signs that leader Kim Jong Un remains in power and control as sensational reports circulated unabated across the world claiming he is grievously ill or perhaps even dead.
Though their significance is disputed, a series of dispatches were reportedly issued in Kim's name to Syria, Cuba and South Africa as well as a letter of praise for local workers. But, as is historically the case when issues arise about its leader's fitness, signals from the Hermit Kingdom often raise more questions than they answer.
Some analysts are confident Kim is currently ensconced at his summer retreat in Wonsan, about 130 miles east of the capital of Pyongyang. Satellite images posted online in recent days show his personal train at the compound and more recent reports Tuesday indicate that yachts Kim has used have been in motion in the area, perhaps indicating his presence there.
But his condition is unknown.
Kim has not been seen for more than two weeks since publicly appearing at the Politburo on April 11. His absence gained widespread attention when he missed celebrations on April 15 marking the 108th anniversary of the birth of his grandfather and the country's founder, Kim Il Sung.
It's not the first time he has gone missing. In 2014, Kim disappeared from public view for three weeks for what was later revealed to be medical procedures, likely to address symptoms of gout. Despite estimates that he's only about 36 years old, Kim has long wrestled with health problems related to obesity and complications from drinking and smoking habits.
"The difference this time around is, one, the circumstantial evidence that seems to suggest that his health is in a worse situation," says Frank Aum, North Korea senior expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace. "And, two, the lack of clarity about Kim Jong Un's successor."
President Donald Trump, who last week said the emerging reports about Kim's failing health were "incorrect," has thus far this week declined to offer any insight into what Kim's condition might be.
"I do have a very good idea, but I can't talk about it now," Trump said during a White House press briefing Monday. "I hope he's fine. I do know how he's doing, relatively speaking. We will see. You'll probably be hearing in the not-too-distant future."
Pressed again Tuesday, Trump said, "I just don't want to comment on it. I just wish him well."
It remains possible that the North Korean leader has cloistered himself amid legitimate concerns about the spread of the coronavirus, a theory that one South Korean minister suggested was plausible on Tuesday. Officials acknowledge the disease could threaten North Korea's underdeveloped public health system, although Pyongyang has not publicly reported a single case of the disease.
Others fear for the worst: that Kim is gravely ill or has died.
Speculation about his health mounted following reports the Chinese government took the unusual step of dispatching a medical team to North Korea to advise on the young leader's condition. Additional published – but unverified – reports, some from foreign news outlets, have contained colorful accounts of Kim clutching his chest before collapsing and of a cardiovascular procedure complicated by a surgeon's shaking hands. Most recently, one post suggested that Kim was injured by shrapnel from an exploding cruise missile while monitoring a weapons test.
Those with major stakes in North Korea's future, namely China, South Korea and the U.S., have been opaque or publicly optimistic about the situation there, likely to avoid forcing North Korea from having to respond. Pentagon officials have declined to offer any information that would indicate a change in power in Pyongyang, with some telling news outlets privately that they are skeptical of the reports. And South Korea has said as recently as this week it assesses that Kim remains "alive and well."
Those in government who worked through the last time Kim went missing say little changed among U.S. diplomats and national security professionals during that period of uncertainty.
"There was no scrambling to write a new plan for how to deal with North Korea that I recall," says Thomas Countryman, who served as undersecretary of state for arms control and international security from 2011 until 2017. "Looking at it from the outside, this seems similar – a little bit of mystery that may have benign implications. All of us should greet this with caution."
At that time, public speculation centered on Kim's likely illnesses – not that he had died in secret – due to his apparent increase in weight along with footage of his walking with a peculiar gait at a ceremony honoring his grandfather. In another public appearance around then, he was sweating visibly. A translation by South Korea's Chosun Ilbo of a state-run footage from Pyongyang revealed an unusual admission in a reference to "Our marshal, who lights the path of leadership for the people like a flame, although he was not feeling well."
When Kim's father, Kim Jong Il, died of a heart attack in 2011, officials did not announce his death for two days. But the exact circumstances long remained in question. Signs of his failing health were at times only learned when they were intercepted by intelligence agencies in communications between North Korean officials and foreign interests from which they were seeking medical advice.
Seoul and Washington now have the critical responsibility not to begin public speculation about what may be going on inside North Korea, says Countryman, chairman of the Arms Control Association board of directors. And if news breaks that Kim is dead, they must avoid any sudden, radical moves.
"It would be a time in which new North Korean leadership was consolidating and deciding where to go," he says. "For the U.S. and South Korea to either take action or make statements that force a response from Pyongyang is unnecessary."
Many analysts point to Kim's younger sister, Kim Yo Jong, as the clear favorite to assume power in the case of his death. Thought to be about 32 years old, she is highly educated and has strong connections to the principal sources of power among the North Korean elite. Analysts believe she has a keen sense of how to shape her image and that of her family, and she has experience in international finance. She has frequently been photographed alongside her brother for propaganda purposes, including images of the pair riding horses together. And she has met multiple times with foreign leaders.
"If Kim Jong Un were to drop dead right now – or already has – Kim Yo Jong would be the only person to take over the country," says Harry Kazianis, senior director for Korean Studies at the Center for the National Interest. "There is, to be frank, no one else who could do the job."
The younger Kim's charm offensive at the 2018 Olympic Games in Pyeongchang, South Korea, secured her position as what local news outlets described as "North Korea's Ivanka," referencing Trump's daughter and influential White House adviser. She was perceived as outflanking the American vice president, who maintained distance from the two Korean delegations, allowing them to appear more unified than ever.
If Kim did indeed become incapacitated in recent weeks, or if he had died, his sister or any other heir would likely try to hide that fact for as long as possible while attenpting to consolidate power among the North Korean elites and military leaders, as well as securing control of the country's nuclear, chemical and biological stockpiles.
"If she can't do that, and there was a power struggle, the world should indeed worry," Kazianis says. "Nothing could be worse than a North Korean civil war fought with weapons of mass destruction. Nothing."
The main obstacle facing Kim Yo Jong and her claim to her family's bloodline is North Korea's historical tradition of looking to male heirs to lead the country.
Kim Jong Un's succession was clear when his father died. He had emerged from relative obscurity a year before, assumed the rank of four-star general and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party, and benefited from a state media campaign designed to deliver to him a cult following.
Aum says the new likely successor would also have to overcome all the prerogatives of the North Korean party and military elites, who are nearly all male and grounded in a patriarchal system.
"Her youth and more reserved nature do not help her in this battle," Aum says.
Other potential contenders for leadership include Kim Pyong Il, the current leader's half-brother and former ambassador to a series of European countries; Choe Ryong Hae, who is considered the No. 2 official in the country by some; and Premier Kim Jae Ryong, head of the Cabinet of North Korea.
But perhaps the only known outcome from a sudden power shift in North Korea is that it would yield a great deal of uncertainty.
"The current situation represents the least amount of clarity about who would succeed," says Aum, "and, therefore, the greatest amount of risk."
See more at U.S. News & World Report
