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By Naomi Lim, Washington Examiner
The fate of the 2020 general election could hang on two congressional districts, one in Maine and the other tucked away in Nebraska.
Maine and Nebraska are the only two states in the country that split their Electoral College votes by congressional district while also rewarding the statewide victor, giving Democrats extra opportunities to pick up votes in otherwise Republican strongholds. And with the fall fight between President Trump and Joe Biden set to be a tight battle for the White House, every vote will matter on Nov. 3.
For the University of Nebraska-Lincoln's Kevin Smith, Trump and Biden were "pretty darn close" nationwide. Though early polling hints the key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are tilting toward Biden, "who knows what they'll look like come the second half of October," the political science professor told the Washington Examiner.
"The scenario ... where the split electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska could play a deciding role in determining who wins is far from unrealistic," he said.
Nebraska leans very Republican as a whole, yet Smith believed Democrats have "reasonable" numbers in the state's 2nd congressional district. The district, which captures Omaha, Nebraska's largest city, elected a Democrat to the House in 2014 for a single term and supported former President Barack Obama in 2008 before Trump beat 2016 Democratic rival Hillary Clinton there 47.8% to 44.5%.
Smith added the Democrats' odds of wooing independents could improve if Trump doesn't handle the economy well amid the coronavirus pandemic.
"While I'd give the GOP the edge in that district right now, it's a small one and could definitely swing the other way depending on turnout and how the local House race shapes up," he said. "The incumbent Don Bacon is popular among the base and seemed to come out of the primary with more unified party support than the Dem nominee."
Sandy Maisel, a political scientist at Maine's Colby College, told the Washington Examiner, his state's 2nd congressional district might become "the most important single district in the country this cycle."
Trump carried the district, which encompasses the region north of Portland, by more than 10 percentage points in 2016. That feat made him the first Republican to earn a New England Electoral College vote since George W. Bush took New Hampshire in 2000. But the district, the largest west of the Mississippi River, will be hotly contested in 2020, Maisel said.
Maisel explained that the presidential dynamics in the district were interwoven with down-ballot tensions, including with Democratic freshman Rep. Jared Golden, "one of the most endangered Democrats" in the House, and Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who has represented Maine since 1997.
"Collins faces the most serious challenge of her career, in all likelihood from Maine Speaker of the House Sarah Gideon," Maisel said. "Both campaigns are well-funded, and Gideon's success will depend on reducing Collins's margin in ME-02, which is Collins's home district and source of electoral strength."
Biden's campaign last week laid out its path to 270 Electoral College votes and the White House.
Top brass for the two-term vice president and 36-year Delaware senator said his strategy hinged on keeping Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia in the Democratic ledger, while flipping Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They're aiming to sweep Maine and Nebraska as well.
Yet they're unlikely to pull off that plan, creating more complicated math for themselves and observers.
Very rarely are there very tight Electoral College contests, according to historian David Pietrusza. The most prominent example is President Rutherford Hayes being handed the White House by a bipartisan commission in 1876 after a slew of southern state voter fraud and other controversies.
But Pietrusza predicted if some 2016 Trump swing states, such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, returned to the Democratic column along with Arizona and the other states hold, "we could be looking at an extremely close race, even a tie."
"Which means that states like Nebraska and Maine, which parcel out electors by congressional districts, could prove incredibly crucial," he said.
If there is a tie, Pietrusza recalled how the House would vote to break the Electoral College deadlock in a process where each state counts as a unit.
"Right now, the GOP has 26 state House delegations; the Democrats 23. Michigan is a tie. Pennsylvania and Arizona are very close. Both are Democratic by a single seat," he said. "Each senator gets a vote for vice president. Again, that could be a nail-biter. Stay tuned."
Read more at Washington Examiner
The fate of the 2020 general election could hang on two congressional districts, one in Maine and the other tucked away in Nebraska.
Maine and Nebraska are the only two states in the country that split their Electoral College votes by congressional district while also rewarding the statewide victor, giving Democrats extra opportunities to pick up votes in otherwise Republican strongholds. And with the fall fight between President Trump and Joe Biden set to be a tight battle for the White House, every vote will matter on Nov. 3.
For the University of Nebraska-Lincoln's Kevin Smith, Trump and Biden were "pretty darn close" nationwide. Though early polling hints the key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are tilting toward Biden, "who knows what they'll look like come the second half of October," the political science professor told the Washington Examiner.
"The scenario ... where the split electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska could play a deciding role in determining who wins is far from unrealistic," he said.
Nebraska leans very Republican as a whole, yet Smith believed Democrats have "reasonable" numbers in the state's 2nd congressional district. The district, which captures Omaha, Nebraska's largest city, elected a Democrat to the House in 2014 for a single term and supported former President Barack Obama in 2008 before Trump beat 2016 Democratic rival Hillary Clinton there 47.8% to 44.5%.
Smith added the Democrats' odds of wooing independents could improve if Trump doesn't handle the economy well amid the coronavirus pandemic.
"While I'd give the GOP the edge in that district right now, it's a small one and could definitely swing the other way depending on turnout and how the local House race shapes up," he said. "The incumbent Don Bacon is popular among the base and seemed to come out of the primary with more unified party support than the Dem nominee."
Sandy Maisel, a political scientist at Maine's Colby College, told the Washington Examiner, his state's 2nd congressional district might become "the most important single district in the country this cycle."
Trump carried the district, which encompasses the region north of Portland, by more than 10 percentage points in 2016. That feat made him the first Republican to earn a New England Electoral College vote since George W. Bush took New Hampshire in 2000. But the district, the largest west of the Mississippi River, will be hotly contested in 2020, Maisel said.
Maisel explained that the presidential dynamics in the district were interwoven with down-ballot tensions, including with Democratic freshman Rep. Jared Golden, "one of the most endangered Democrats" in the House, and Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who has represented Maine since 1997.
"Collins faces the most serious challenge of her career, in all likelihood from Maine Speaker of the House Sarah Gideon," Maisel said. "Both campaigns are well-funded, and Gideon's success will depend on reducing Collins's margin in ME-02, which is Collins's home district and source of electoral strength."
Biden's campaign last week laid out its path to 270 Electoral College votes and the White House.
Top brass for the two-term vice president and 36-year Delaware senator said his strategy hinged on keeping Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia in the Democratic ledger, while flipping Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They're aiming to sweep Maine and Nebraska as well.
Yet they're unlikely to pull off that plan, creating more complicated math for themselves and observers.
Very rarely are there very tight Electoral College contests, according to historian David Pietrusza. The most prominent example is President Rutherford Hayes being handed the White House by a bipartisan commission in 1876 after a slew of southern state voter fraud and other controversies.
But Pietrusza predicted if some 2016 Trump swing states, such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, returned to the Democratic column along with Arizona and the other states hold, "we could be looking at an extremely close race, even a tie."
"Which means that states like Nebraska and Maine, which parcel out electors by congressional districts, could prove incredibly crucial," he said.
If there is a tie, Pietrusza recalled how the House would vote to break the Electoral College deadlock in a process where each state counts as a unit.
"Right now, the GOP has 26 state House delegations; the Democrats 23. Michigan is a tie. Pennsylvania and Arizona are very close. Both are Democratic by a single seat," he said. "Each senator gets a vote for vice president. Again, that could be a nail-biter. Stay tuned."
Read more at Washington Examiner
